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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 22 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 3.10 (-4.50%) month over month and $ 0.95 PT MT week over ...
Monday, 22 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.35 (+0.69%) day on day and lost US$ 0.30 (-0.58%) per mt week on week. ...
Sunday, 21 September 14
CAPE INDEX LOST 17% W-O-W ; BALTIC DRY PLUNGES 106 POINTS
COALspot.com: This week the freight market softened a bit compared to last week.
BDI fell 8.97% week on week and closed BDI at 1075 points on ...
Friday, 19 September 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT +0.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 19 September 14
PRICES FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS HAVEN'T CORRECTED ENOUGH, DESPITE LOWER THAN EXPECTED FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lot has been said and written about the looming dry bulk market recovery over the past few months. However, even if this hasn’t been materi ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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