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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- The University of Queensland
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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