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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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