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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
Friday, 27 March 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION REQUIRES LETTER OF CREDIT FOR EXPORT OF PRODUCTS FROM NATURAL RESOURCES
The Minister of Trade issued Ministerial Regulation No. 04/M-DAG/PER/1/2015 (“Regulation No. 4/2015”) on 5 January 2015. Regulati ...
Friday, 27 March 15
WEEKLY U.S COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.7% W-W; 7.9% Y-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
CHINA IRON ORE IMPORT FOR THE FIRST 2 MONTHS DECLINED BY 1.2 % Y-O-Y; PANAMAX AUSSIE/CHINA ROUNDS BEING FIXED IN THE $4 -5K RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
There has been more activity in both hemispheres this week. Especially the USG market has picked up with more cargoes for prompter dates en ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZE SEGMENT CONTINUED TO IMPROVE LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
To see green across the board is a rare occurrence in the Dry Bulk market nowadays and while the upside in which last week closed off is not of the ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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