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Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says India will be central to supporting growth in the global seaborne metallurgical (met) coal market this year, with a two million tonnes (Mt) rise in imports on the cards. Overall however, global growth in the seaborne market will remain broadly subdued thanks to expectations for a further retreat in Chinese imports of 4-5Mt. Following on from last year, China’s appetite for imports has waned thanks to a combination of a slowing steel sector, lower coke prices and the continued uncertainty regarding trace element standards being enforced on met coal imports.
Ronnie Cecil, Principal Steel Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says, “In 2015, the combined net increase in global seaborne demand will just about be sufficient to offset the negative China impact this year. India offers the main ray of hope with steel production growth on course to advance 4% this year boosting demand for imported met coal. Growth wise semi-soft coking coal (SSCC) and pulverised coal injection (PCI) coal, both used in steelmaking, will continue to see imports rise sharply thanks to steelmakers’ ongoing focus on hot metal cost reduction. Meanwhile, the scarcity of good quality premium hard coking coal locally will continue to support imports.”
Looking further ahead, India is expected to remain a key driver of global met coal trade growth over both the medium and long term. Of the 123Mt rise in global trade projected by Wood Mackenzie out to 2035, India is expected to account for 40% of this, with China contributing 28%. Mr Cecil says, “We expect rising Indian demand to overtake Japan - currently the biggest importer - in 2025 before reaching parity with China by 2035. This begs the question of whether India will be the next China.”
For the medium term from now to 2020, Wood Mackenzie says China is expected to resume its charge on the coal import front, with imports heading over 100Mt. However, with peak hot metal demand set to kick-in around the same time at 880Mt, this will temper further upside for Chinese coal imports longer term. For India, it is very much the reverse of this story. Mr Cecil explains, “While the potential for huge steel consumption growth is there in India, the capacity to satisfy that demand is likely to take a longer timeframe compared to China as it is typically constrained by bureaucratic procedures, regulations and permitting issues. As a result, we are less bullish over the medium term anticipating steel growth of 4-5% per annum, before ramping up to 6-7% per annum in the longer term to 2035. This in-turn will skew most of the 51Mt coal import growth in India towards the 2020-2035 timeframe.”
In summary, Mr Cecil says, “India’s steel sector tells of a positive story through to the longer term. For now, it is not a dominant force but it is clearly starting to show strength in supporting demand through a very weak and oversupplied global market. It is also one to watch to understand the shift in demand growth concentration when China does eventually reach peak iron and steel demand.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit Wood Mackenzie official website
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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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