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Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for the Second World War. In today's shipping environment where the daily headlines are in the likes of “excess vessel supply continues to weigh on the dry bulk market” and “slower growth in steel output and reduced coal demand contribute to a declining freight rate environment”, we also need all the motivation we can get. Companies’ revenues have declined and many operators are in the red, some are chopping charter rates, we hear about bankruptcies, restructurings and anyone can easily paint a very bleak outlook for the next couple of years.
According to the IMF, global growth in 2014 was 3.3% and in 2015 - 2016 it is projected to be 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively. It is notable that the 2015-16 projections were revised downwards by 0.3% in October 2014, reflecting the reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan, as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
In January 2014 the dry bulk fleet (over 20,000tons dwt) stood at 8,979 vessels or 697,63million tons deadweight. During 2014 the net growth (deliveries/additions minus demolitions/removals) was 5% in terms of deadweight (a closer proxy to the carrying capacity). Given the fact that there is high correlation between global growth and seaborne trade, unless the GDP growth is higher than the fleet growth, then simply put “the ships are always too many for the cargoes”. With the world growth at 3.3% in 2014 it is evident that the world fleet has been under-utilized and supply has exceeded demand.
In 2015 demolition levels and slippage/cancellations/conversions will be the key. Let’s look at some numbers. The current dry fleet is at 737.65 million tons deadweight while the dry orderbook for 2015 stands at 69million tons deadweight. Assuming that only 80% of this will be delivered (due to slippage, cancellations, conversions etc.) the increase will be 55.2mil tons deadweight. If demolition activity, which has kicked off the year encouragingly, ends up being similar to the levels of 2012, it will be a huge relief valve. In 2012 according to our data about 30million tons dwt was scrapped so if this repeats, the net growth of the fleet will be about 25million tons dwt or 3.4%. This is quite marginal against the projected global growth for 2015 but it may very well signal a balanced supply-demand outlook. So any upside on either the supply (more cancellations, more demolition) or the demand side (the boost to global demand from lower oil prices could be greater than is currently factored into the projections) can reverse the current situation.
The obvious question is if demolition activity can indeed reach 2012 levels. Well, the fleet of ships older than 25 years stands at 29.4mil tonnes i.e. a shade lower than the “required” volume that needs to be scrapped; another 40mil tonnes deadweight are the ships between 20-25 years. In the first two months of 2015, we have already seen much younger vessels sent for scrap. So the relief valve is there and needs to be kept open. Upcoming regulations that will require the shipowners to invest in upgrading their assets will also help in that direction since older assets will not be worth the investment.
So there you have it, there is a quite plausible scenario that can play out this year that can shift things towards the right direction and as long as a series of logical events occur, then we may be looking at a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. So, Keep Calm and Invest in Dry.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.96 PMT; DOWN 8.40% M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has declined U ...
Monday, 06 April 15
INDONESIA'S HBA FIXED AT US$ 64.48 PMT FOR APRIL DELIVERY; DOWN 4.84% M-M
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 64.48 per MT in Apr ...
Monday, 06 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 12% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 6.23 per MT (-12%) month over month and US$ 0.86 (-1.85%) week ...
Monday, 06 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.96 (-10.37%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.98 (- ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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