We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for the Second World War. In today's shipping environment where the daily headlines are in the likes of “excess vessel supply continues to weigh on the dry bulk market” and “slower growth in steel output and reduced coal demand contribute to a declining freight rate environment”, we also need all the motivation we can get. Companies’ revenues have declined and many operators are in the red, some are chopping charter rates, we hear about bankruptcies, restructurings and anyone can easily paint a very bleak outlook for the next couple of years.
According to the IMF, global growth in 2014 was 3.3% and in 2015 - 2016 it is projected to be 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively. It is notable that the 2015-16 projections were revised downwards by 0.3% in October 2014, reflecting the reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan, as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
In January 2014 the dry bulk fleet (over 20,000tons dwt) stood at 8,979 vessels or 697,63million tons deadweight. During 2014 the net growth (deliveries/additions minus demolitions/removals) was 5% in terms of deadweight (a closer proxy to the carrying capacity). Given the fact that there is high correlation between global growth and seaborne trade, unless the GDP growth is higher than the fleet growth, then simply put “the ships are always too many for the cargoes”. With the world growth at 3.3% in 2014 it is evident that the world fleet has been under-utilized and supply has exceeded demand.
In 2015 demolition levels and slippage/cancellations/conversions will be the key. Let’s look at some numbers. The current dry fleet is at 737.65 million tons deadweight while the dry orderbook for 2015 stands at 69million tons deadweight. Assuming that only 80% of this will be delivered (due to slippage, cancellations, conversions etc.) the increase will be 55.2mil tons deadweight. If demolition activity, which has kicked off the year encouragingly, ends up being similar to the levels of 2012, it will be a huge relief valve. In 2012 according to our data about 30million tons dwt was scrapped so if this repeats, the net growth of the fleet will be about 25million tons dwt or 3.4%. This is quite marginal against the projected global growth for 2015 but it may very well signal a balanced supply-demand outlook. So any upside on either the supply (more cancellations, more demolition) or the demand side (the boost to global demand from lower oil prices could be greater than is currently factored into the projections) can reverse the current situation.
The obvious question is if demolition activity can indeed reach 2012 levels. Well, the fleet of ships older than 25 years stands at 29.4mil tonnes i.e. a shade lower than the “required” volume that needs to be scrapped; another 40mil tonnes deadweight are the ships between 20-25 years. In the first two months of 2015, we have already seen much younger vessels sent for scrap. So the relief valve is there and needs to be kept open. Upcoming regulations that will require the shipowners to invest in upgrading their assets will also help in that direction since older assets will not be worth the investment.
So there you have it, there is a quite plausible scenario that can play out this year that can shift things towards the right direction and as long as a series of logical events occur, then we may be looking at a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. So, Keep Calm and Invest in Dry.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
|
|
|
Showing 3081 to 3085 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
