We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for the Second World War. In today's shipping environment where the daily headlines are in the likes of “excess vessel supply continues to weigh on the dry bulk market” and “slower growth in steel output and reduced coal demand contribute to a declining freight rate environment”, we also need all the motivation we can get. Companies’ revenues have declined and many operators are in the red, some are chopping charter rates, we hear about bankruptcies, restructurings and anyone can easily paint a very bleak outlook for the next couple of years.
According to the IMF, global growth in 2014 was 3.3% and in 2015 - 2016 it is projected to be 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively. It is notable that the 2015-16 projections were revised downwards by 0.3% in October 2014, reflecting the reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan, as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
In January 2014 the dry bulk fleet (over 20,000tons dwt) stood at 8,979 vessels or 697,63million tons deadweight. During 2014 the net growth (deliveries/additions minus demolitions/removals) was 5% in terms of deadweight (a closer proxy to the carrying capacity). Given the fact that there is high correlation between global growth and seaborne trade, unless the GDP growth is higher than the fleet growth, then simply put “the ships are always too many for the cargoes”. With the world growth at 3.3% in 2014 it is evident that the world fleet has been under-utilized and supply has exceeded demand.
In 2015 demolition levels and slippage/cancellations/conversions will be the key. Let’s look at some numbers. The current dry fleet is at 737.65 million tons deadweight while the dry orderbook for 2015 stands at 69million tons deadweight. Assuming that only 80% of this will be delivered (due to slippage, cancellations, conversions etc.) the increase will be 55.2mil tons deadweight. If demolition activity, which has kicked off the year encouragingly, ends up being similar to the levels of 2012, it will be a huge relief valve. In 2012 according to our data about 30million tons dwt was scrapped so if this repeats, the net growth of the fleet will be about 25million tons dwt or 3.4%. This is quite marginal against the projected global growth for 2015 but it may very well signal a balanced supply-demand outlook. So any upside on either the supply (more cancellations, more demolition) or the demand side (the boost to global demand from lower oil prices could be greater than is currently factored into the projections) can reverse the current situation.
The obvious question is if demolition activity can indeed reach 2012 levels. Well, the fleet of ships older than 25 years stands at 29.4mil tonnes i.e. a shade lower than the “required” volume that needs to be scrapped; another 40mil tonnes deadweight are the ships between 20-25 years. In the first two months of 2015, we have already seen much younger vessels sent for scrap. So the relief valve is there and needs to be kept open. Upcoming regulations that will require the shipowners to invest in upgrading their assets will also help in that direction since older assets will not be worth the investment.
So there you have it, there is a quite plausible scenario that can play out this year that can shift things towards the right direction and as long as a series of logical events occur, then we may be looking at a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. So, Keep Calm and Invest in Dry.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 14 April 15
COAL OUTPUT FALLS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO LAG - JP
Coal output dropped by 21 percent in the first three months of the year as low prices for the commodity forced mining companies to reduce activitie ...
Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
|
|
|
Showing 3076 to 3080 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
|
| |
| |
|
