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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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