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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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