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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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