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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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