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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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