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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 ROSE 3.39% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.90 (+3.39%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.08  ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $1 HIGHER THAN Q3
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.12 per MT (+6.44%) month over month and fall US$ 0.43 (-0.83%) w ...
Sunday, 22 February 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX LOST ALMOST 3.2% OR 17 POINTS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, one of the economic indicators that monitors the health of the world's economy by tracking the price of shi ...
Friday, 20 February 15
GOVT SET TO INCREASE COAL OUTPUT TARGET THIS YEAR - JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is planning to increase its coal output target this year as the government seeks to offset the ongoing de ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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