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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 ROSE 3.39% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.90 (+3.39%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.08 ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $1 HIGHER THAN Q3
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.12 per MT (+6.44%) month over month and fall US$ 0.43 (-0.83%) w ...
Sunday, 22 February 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX LOST ALMOST 3.2% OR 17 POINTS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, one of the economic indicators that monitors the health of the world's economy by tracking the price of shi ...
Friday, 20 February 15
GOVT SET TO INCREASE COAL OUTPUT TARGET THIS YEAR - JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is planning to increase its coal output target this year as the government seeks to offset the ongoing de ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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