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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
Sunday, 01 March 15
BDI INDEX SLIGHTLY UP CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE PANAMAX, SUPARAMAX AND HANDY SIZE INDICES
COALspot.com: The freight market saw some gains this week and BDI was up 5.26 pct closed at 540 points. However the Cape index failed to follow BDI ...
Friday, 27 February 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14.0% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET COULD REBOUND FROM HISTORICAL LOWS IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. T ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
COAL POLICY RISK: HIGHER ROYALTIES FOR IUP HOLDERS - BAHANA SECURITIES | JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of the first qu ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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