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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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