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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off ...
Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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