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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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