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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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