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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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