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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
Monday, 23 March 15
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE: GROWTH +5% - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Sunday, 22 March 15
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO RISE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this week as all the segments increased after many weeks of weak trend.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ...
Friday, 20 March 15
HARD COAL MARKET 2014: DESPITE THE ENERGY TURNAROUND, HARD COAL IMPORTS TO GERMANY RISE BY MORE THAN 6% (PART 1)
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Friday, 20 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 5.9% INCREASE WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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