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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
Friday, 27 March 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION REQUIRES LETTER OF CREDIT FOR EXPORT OF PRODUCTS FROM NATURAL RESOURCES
The Minister of Trade issued Ministerial Regulation No. 04/M-DAG/PER/1/2015 (“Regulation No. 4/2015”) on 5 January 2015. Regulati ...
Friday, 27 March 15
WEEKLY U.S COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.7% W-W; 7.9% Y-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
CHINA IRON ORE IMPORT FOR THE FIRST 2 MONTHS DECLINED BY 1.2 % Y-O-Y; PANAMAX AUSSIE/CHINA ROUNDS BEING FIXED IN THE $4 -5K RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
There has been more activity in both hemispheres this week. Especially the USG market has picked up with more cargoes for prompter dates en ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZE SEGMENT CONTINUED TO IMPROVE LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
To see green across the board is a rare occurrence in the Dry Bulk market nowadays and while the upside in which last week closed off is not of the ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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