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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 30 March 15
WORST IS OVER FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, BUT THE PAIN WILL REMAIN FOR YEARS TO COME, SAYS BIMCO CHIEF ANALYST - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current demise of the dry bulk market isn’t one to go away anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that it can’t improve, with all sh ...
Monday, 30 March 15
Q3' 15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED 8.7% M-M; 12.77% Y-TO-D
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.00 (-8.70%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.33 (-2 ...
Monday, 30 March 15
Q2' FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.47% HIGHER THAN Q4' CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.42 per MT (-10.43%) month over month and US$ 1.60 (-3.32%) w ...
Sunday, 29 March 15
INDO - INDIA: SUPRAMAX & PANAMAX FREIGHT MARKET STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market was almost stable as all segments slightly up except Panamax sector.
The BDI was up by just 0.85% week over w ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
IS NORTHERN EUROPE THE NEW MINING ELDORADO?
The Europe Mining 2015 Summit, organised by Global Summits organizer IRN on 17-18 June in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, will gather senior level repr ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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