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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 April 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERS FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS "DRY" UP
Newbuilding ordering activity remained subdued over the course of the past week, as ship owners are wary of adding further tonnage to an already pr ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
SUPRAMAX & HANDY: RATES HELD STEADY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
“Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market closed off on the green last week, sentiment didn't improve by any means, not only because of ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that we are still witnessing a very challenging and at the same time very uncertain market, both with respect to dry chartering a ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
Q4' 15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.15 W/E 27 MARCH 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 drops month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap declined US$ 1.54 (3.24%) mo ...
Tuesday, 31 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month but increased week on week.
The Q2 swap has ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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