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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 February 15
U.S. PRODUCED AROUND 19.2 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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