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Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
 Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election fever, we cannot but wonder what sort of challenges we could be facing in 2015, while as the bitter sweet taste the performance of our industry left us with as 2014 ended is still strong, we look back to the activity of Greek owners last year together with what could be lying ahead for the different shipping markets this year.
Greek owners were reported as Buyers in 340 of the 2014 reported second-hand sales and as Sellers in 153 of them. This trend clearly shows that despite the volatility in the freight market, Greeks were still keen on snapping second-hand tonnage during the year. At the same time they have shown a clear preference on Japanese quality units, while the softening of asset prices that has been taking place since mid-year, has also helped SnP activity, which despite the challenging conditions of the market in 2014, remained pretty much at the same levels we saw back in 2013.
As far as the following months are concerned, and while the Dry Bulk market remains under pressure, we expect SnP activity for dry bulkers to considerably soften, as most owners will choose to sit on the sidelines until they have a more clear view of what’s coming ahead. On the tankers side, where things have been considerably more upbeat, we expect buying interest for crude carriers to remain stable overall at least for the first quarter of next year, while the recent popularity of MR and LR1 tonnage seems to be holding well, despite the fact that the long list of scheduled 2015 deliveries for the former are expected to weigh down on freight rates, fact which will most certainly scale back the current upside.
Out of the 2,874 newbuilding orders that were recorded during 2014, Greek owners were reported to be behind 127 of them, which is almost a 30% decrease compared to 2013 Greek orders. The new-building market has faced an extremely challenging year in terms of activity and this has been mostly attributed to the sharp fall in dry bulker orders compared to the previous year. Following the ordering spree of 2013, newbuilding prices remained on an upward trend for almost the entire first half of 2014 and despite the fact that the performance of the dry bulk freight market missed the expectations built up during the end of 2013. This has weighed down considerably on ordering interest for conventional vessels.
Prospects for next year remain dim. Despite the fact that prices currently stand well off the highs of January, most owners currently seem completely uninterested in revisiting the prospect of placing an order. On top of that, even in sectors that are currently enjoying some good earnings, the tonnage that is due to hit the water this year, is bound to put pressure on earnings and thus will further deter owners from heading back to the yards.
On the demolition front, 1,158 vessels in total were reported scrapped in 2014, a number significantly smaller compared to 2013. The percentage of Greek owned vessels that headed for scrapping remained stable nonetheless, showing that the mentality of getting rid of vintage tonnage and in most cases replacing it with modern one is still part of the Greek mentality. The demolition market was also under pressure last year. Following the intense scrapping activity of 2013, which in some cases created fairly “young fleets”, especially within size segments in the tanker sector, limited the volume of potential scrapping candidates. At the same time and despite the fact that demo prices were kept at significantly attractive levels during the first half of the year, most owners kept holding on to the hope of better freight rates during the last quarter of 2014, thus ruling out the demolition option. On top of that and even more importantly, as cheap Chinese scrap steel has been flooding the markets since the beginning of the summer, demo buyers in the Indian subcontinent were forced to lower their bids by more than $70/ldt in a very short period of time, making the demolition option even less attractive to owners of vintage tonnage. Despite the fact that steel demand remains overall healthy amongst breaker countries, we expect the negative trend of both demo volume and prices to resume next year, especially as any measures that could potentially set a floor on Chinese steel imports are being delayed.
At the beginning of every year, people make New Year’s resolutions. Perhaps the one for our industry should be to reinvent itself, which is always a task that requires hard work but in this case might be necessary in order to move ahead minimizing the extent to which our expectations are missed and the eventual disappointment to ourselves. Are we bound to witness rates achieved at the pick of last cycle for prolonged periods anytime soon? Probably not. But this doesn’t mean that there isn’t still value in operating ships today. I often hear that the entry of private equity in shipping in the past years has added to the often talked about oversupply of tonnage, but in my opinion this is not true. Private equity is actually behind a fairly small part of the funding that added the “extra” tonnage we are dealing with today. What non-traditional shipping players are responsible for though, is probably the change of mentality that made some in our industry eager to chase the quick asset play rather than operate a ship throughout its commercial life and gain from market conditions that could still bring along substantial profits. So let’s get back to the basics and hope that this won’t be a resolution that shares the same fate most New Year resolutions do...
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
 About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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