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Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
 Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election fever, we cannot but wonder what sort of challenges we could be facing in 2015, while as the bitter sweet taste the performance of our industry left us with as 2014 ended is still strong, we look back to the activity of Greek owners last year together with what could be lying ahead for the different shipping markets this year.
Greek owners were reported as Buyers in 340 of the 2014 reported second-hand sales and as Sellers in 153 of them. This trend clearly shows that despite the volatility in the freight market, Greeks were still keen on snapping second-hand tonnage during the year. At the same time they have shown a clear preference on Japanese quality units, while the softening of asset prices that has been taking place since mid-year, has also helped SnP activity, which despite the challenging conditions of the market in 2014, remained pretty much at the same levels we saw back in 2013.
As far as the following months are concerned, and while the Dry Bulk market remains under pressure, we expect SnP activity for dry bulkers to considerably soften, as most owners will choose to sit on the sidelines until they have a more clear view of what’s coming ahead. On the tankers side, where things have been considerably more upbeat, we expect buying interest for crude carriers to remain stable overall at least for the first quarter of next year, while the recent popularity of MR and LR1 tonnage seems to be holding well, despite the fact that the long list of scheduled 2015 deliveries for the former are expected to weigh down on freight rates, fact which will most certainly scale back the current upside.
Out of the 2,874 newbuilding orders that were recorded during 2014, Greek owners were reported to be behind 127 of them, which is almost a 30% decrease compared to 2013 Greek orders. The new-building market has faced an extremely challenging year in terms of activity and this has been mostly attributed to the sharp fall in dry bulker orders compared to the previous year. Following the ordering spree of 2013, newbuilding prices remained on an upward trend for almost the entire first half of 2014 and despite the fact that the performance of the dry bulk freight market missed the expectations built up during the end of 2013. This has weighed down considerably on ordering interest for conventional vessels.
Prospects for next year remain dim. Despite the fact that prices currently stand well off the highs of January, most owners currently seem completely uninterested in revisiting the prospect of placing an order. On top of that, even in sectors that are currently enjoying some good earnings, the tonnage that is due to hit the water this year, is bound to put pressure on earnings and thus will further deter owners from heading back to the yards.
On the demolition front, 1,158 vessels in total were reported scrapped in 2014, a number significantly smaller compared to 2013. The percentage of Greek owned vessels that headed for scrapping remained stable nonetheless, showing that the mentality of getting rid of vintage tonnage and in most cases replacing it with modern one is still part of the Greek mentality. The demolition market was also under pressure last year. Following the intense scrapping activity of 2013, which in some cases created fairly “young fleets”, especially within size segments in the tanker sector, limited the volume of potential scrapping candidates. At the same time and despite the fact that demo prices were kept at significantly attractive levels during the first half of the year, most owners kept holding on to the hope of better freight rates during the last quarter of 2014, thus ruling out the demolition option. On top of that and even more importantly, as cheap Chinese scrap steel has been flooding the markets since the beginning of the summer, demo buyers in the Indian subcontinent were forced to lower their bids by more than $70/ldt in a very short period of time, making the demolition option even less attractive to owners of vintage tonnage. Despite the fact that steel demand remains overall healthy amongst breaker countries, we expect the negative trend of both demo volume and prices to resume next year, especially as any measures that could potentially set a floor on Chinese steel imports are being delayed.
At the beginning of every year, people make New Year’s resolutions. Perhaps the one for our industry should be to reinvent itself, which is always a task that requires hard work but in this case might be necessary in order to move ahead minimizing the extent to which our expectations are missed and the eventual disappointment to ourselves. Are we bound to witness rates achieved at the pick of last cycle for prolonged periods anytime soon? Probably not. But this doesn’t mean that there isn’t still value in operating ships today. I often hear that the entry of private equity in shipping in the past years has added to the often talked about oversupply of tonnage, but in my opinion this is not true. Private equity is actually behind a fairly small part of the funding that added the “extra” tonnage we are dealing with today. What non-traditional shipping players are responsible for though, is probably the change of mentality that made some in our industry eager to chase the quick asset play rather than operate a ship throughout its commercial life and gain from market conditions that could still bring along substantial profits. So let’s get back to the basics and hope that this won’t be a resolution that shares the same fate most New Year resolutions do...
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
 About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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