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Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
 Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election fever, we cannot but wonder what sort of challenges we could be facing in 2015, while as the bitter sweet taste the performance of our industry left us with as 2014 ended is still strong, we look back to the activity of Greek owners last year together with what could be lying ahead for the different shipping markets this year.
Greek owners were reported as Buyers in 340 of the 2014 reported second-hand sales and as Sellers in 153 of them. This trend clearly shows that despite the volatility in the freight market, Greeks were still keen on snapping second-hand tonnage during the year. At the same time they have shown a clear preference on Japanese quality units, while the softening of asset prices that has been taking place since mid-year, has also helped SnP activity, which despite the challenging conditions of the market in 2014, remained pretty much at the same levels we saw back in 2013.
As far as the following months are concerned, and while the Dry Bulk market remains under pressure, we expect SnP activity for dry bulkers to considerably soften, as most owners will choose to sit on the sidelines until they have a more clear view of what’s coming ahead. On the tankers side, where things have been considerably more upbeat, we expect buying interest for crude carriers to remain stable overall at least for the first quarter of next year, while the recent popularity of MR and LR1 tonnage seems to be holding well, despite the fact that the long list of scheduled 2015 deliveries for the former are expected to weigh down on freight rates, fact which will most certainly scale back the current upside.
Out of the 2,874 newbuilding orders that were recorded during 2014, Greek owners were reported to be behind 127 of them, which is almost a 30% decrease compared to 2013 Greek orders. The new-building market has faced an extremely challenging year in terms of activity and this has been mostly attributed to the sharp fall in dry bulker orders compared to the previous year. Following the ordering spree of 2013, newbuilding prices remained on an upward trend for almost the entire first half of 2014 and despite the fact that the performance of the dry bulk freight market missed the expectations built up during the end of 2013. This has weighed down considerably on ordering interest for conventional vessels.
Prospects for next year remain dim. Despite the fact that prices currently stand well off the highs of January, most owners currently seem completely uninterested in revisiting the prospect of placing an order. On top of that, even in sectors that are currently enjoying some good earnings, the tonnage that is due to hit the water this year, is bound to put pressure on earnings and thus will further deter owners from heading back to the yards.
On the demolition front, 1,158 vessels in total were reported scrapped in 2014, a number significantly smaller compared to 2013. The percentage of Greek owned vessels that headed for scrapping remained stable nonetheless, showing that the mentality of getting rid of vintage tonnage and in most cases replacing it with modern one is still part of the Greek mentality. The demolition market was also under pressure last year. Following the intense scrapping activity of 2013, which in some cases created fairly “young fleets”, especially within size segments in the tanker sector, limited the volume of potential scrapping candidates. At the same time and despite the fact that demo prices were kept at significantly attractive levels during the first half of the year, most owners kept holding on to the hope of better freight rates during the last quarter of 2014, thus ruling out the demolition option. On top of that and even more importantly, as cheap Chinese scrap steel has been flooding the markets since the beginning of the summer, demo buyers in the Indian subcontinent were forced to lower their bids by more than $70/ldt in a very short period of time, making the demolition option even less attractive to owners of vintage tonnage. Despite the fact that steel demand remains overall healthy amongst breaker countries, we expect the negative trend of both demo volume and prices to resume next year, especially as any measures that could potentially set a floor on Chinese steel imports are being delayed.
At the beginning of every year, people make New Year’s resolutions. Perhaps the one for our industry should be to reinvent itself, which is always a task that requires hard work but in this case might be necessary in order to move ahead minimizing the extent to which our expectations are missed and the eventual disappointment to ourselves. Are we bound to witness rates achieved at the pick of last cycle for prolonged periods anytime soon? Probably not. But this doesn’t mean that there isn’t still value in operating ships today. I often hear that the entry of private equity in shipping in the past years has added to the often talked about oversupply of tonnage, but in my opinion this is not true. Private equity is actually behind a fairly small part of the funding that added the “extra” tonnage we are dealing with today. What non-traditional shipping players are responsible for though, is probably the change of mentality that made some in our industry eager to chase the quick asset play rather than operate a ship throughout its commercial life and gain from market conditions that could still bring along substantial profits. So let’s get back to the basics and hope that this won’t be a resolution that shares the same fate most New Year resolutions do...
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
 About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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