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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Tuesday, 23 December 14
SHIPOWNERS ARE FINALIZING MORE DEALS AS YEAR END COMES CLOSER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
With the 2014 year just a few days before waving goodbye, shipowners are looking to close their pending deals in both the newbuilding and S&P m ...
Monday, 22 December 14
Q2'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 0.30 LOWER THAN Q1'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.67 (-5.81%) month over month and US$ 0.35 (-0.58%) ...
Monday, 22 December 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ARE HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.71 per MT (-3.24%) and closed at US$ 51.02 on 19 December month ...
Sunday, 21 December 14
PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA FALLS FURTHER
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index lost heavily week on week.
The BDI was down 6.95 percent week over week and closed at 8 ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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