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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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