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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 02 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has lost U ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q1' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 49.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.4 ...
Monday, 01 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 52.50
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.50 on 28 November after losing US$ 1.20 (-2.23%) month ove ...
Monday, 01 December 14
Q2' 15 DELIVERY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED 0.42% LOWER THAN Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.45 (-3.78%) month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1.06%) we ...
Sunday, 30 November 14
SUPRAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA : FIRM
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 171 points and closed at 1153 points on Friday 28 November 2014. The Cape index also lost 887 points and closed at 2151 ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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