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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 06 December 14
MUNDRA PORT MAKES HISTORY BY HANDLING THE LARGEST BULK CARRIER TO CALL ON WEST COAST OF INDIA
COALspot.com: Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd, India’s largest port developer and part of Adani Group, yesterday said its Mundra Port successf ...
Friday, 05 December 14
CHINESE SPECIAL STEEL MAKERS' RISK PROFILES MORE RESILIENT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the risk profiles of Chinese makers of special steel, especially high-end products, are more like those of manufacturers and mor ...
Friday, 05 December 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED AROUND 905 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 04 December 14
CAPE MARKET IS DEVELOPING FROM BAD TO WORSE
Handy
The Atlantic market has been pretty stable and balanced this week, Fearnleys AS says in its latest weekly report.
The broker furt ...
Thursday, 04 December 14
DRY BULK MARKET; ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK
COALspot.com: For those who have been hoping to see alignment of freight direction across the Dry Bulk market, this must have been another disappoi ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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