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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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