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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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