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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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