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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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