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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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