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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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