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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly de ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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