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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
Monday, 15 December 14
Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.74%) closed at US$ 51.45 on 12 December month over ...
Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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