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Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a new era in the iron ore sector and major analysts are already cutting down substantially their forecasts for the price of the commodity during 2015. The commodity traded at $75.38 on November the 6th, marking the lowest level since September 2009 and top researchers are talking about 2015 prices averaging around 80$ per ton.
According to Rio de Janeiro-based Vale SA, the largest producer, “The oversupply won’t last forever as some smaller producers that started output when prices were much higher won’t be able to survive the slump”. Even now that the commodity’s price is at record low levels, the majors are still looking at the big picture and they both continue to ramp up production in both Brazil and Australia.
From a maritime perspective, the oversupply of global iron ore is one of the main factors that could drive the demand for seaborne trade. The iron ore market fundamentals are changing to the extent where we all hope that the global surplus of the commodity will continue to fuel the rates for Capesize vessels over a prolonged period. The question is, how long it will take until the smaller producers will have to cease operations due to the lower industry price floor.
During last week, the iron majors in both Brazil and Australia were considered as relatively quiet and, as a result, freight rates declined week on week on the Tubarao to Qingdao route to $9.35 per tonne and on the Western Australia to China route to $24 per tonne.
Nevertheless the freight market for capesize bulk carriers is still at sustainable levels and the top iron ore producers are intending to bring even more new supply to the market over the next three years.
The increase in global supply is also affecting the Chinese domestic output and if the majors want to force a high percentage of these producers to shut down, they will have to ensure that prices will remain low for an extended period or at least for the next couple of months.
Even though Chinese iron ore imports decreased more than 6 percent compared to September, the overall sentiment is that they still remain on track for their biggest growth in the last five years, which is somewhat encouraging for now.
This means that at least in the short term the surplus of iron ore in the market will most likely be absorbed mainly by China, while expectations for 2015 are that the global surplus will be approximately 110 million tons. Comparing that to the 2014 surplus of around 60 million tons, yields a clear picture of the oversupply that is flooding the industry and places even more weight on the significance of the Chinese economy.
By Christopher T. Whitty
Marketing Manager - Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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