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Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
 COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a new era in the iron ore sector and major analysts are already cutting down substantially their forecasts for the price of the commodity during 2015. The commodity traded at $75.38 on November the 6th, marking the lowest level since September 2009 and top researchers are talking about 2015 prices averaging around 80$ per ton.
According to Rio de Janeiro-based Vale SA, the largest producer, “The oversupply won’t last forever as some smaller producers that started output when prices were much higher won’t be able to survive the slump”. Even now that the commodity’s price is at record low levels, the majors are still looking at the big picture and they both continue to ramp up production in both Brazil and Australia.
From a maritime perspective, the oversupply of global iron ore is one of the main factors that could drive the demand for seaborne trade. The iron ore market fundamentals are changing to the extent where we all hope that the global surplus of the commodity will continue to fuel the rates for Capesize vessels over a prolonged period. The question is, how long it will take until the smaller producers will have to cease operations due to the lower industry price floor.
During last week, the iron majors in both Brazil and Australia were considered as relatively quiet and, as a result, freight rates declined week on week on the Tubarao to Qingdao route to $9.35 per tonne and on the Western Australia to China route to $24 per tonne.
Nevertheless the freight market for capesize bulk carriers is still at sustainable levels and the top iron ore producers are intending to bring even more new supply to the market over the next three years.
The increase in global supply is also affecting the Chinese domestic output and if the majors want to force a high percentage of these producers to shut down, they will have to ensure that prices will remain low for an extended period or at least for the next couple of months.
Even though Chinese iron ore imports decreased more than 6 percent compared to September, the overall sentiment is that they still remain on track for their biggest growth in the last five years, which is somewhat encouraging for now.
This means that at least in the short term the surplus of iron ore in the market will most likely be absorbed mainly by China, while expectations for 2015 are that the global surplus will be approximately 110 million tons. Comparing that to the 2014 surplus of around 60 million tons, yields a clear picture of the oversupply that is flooding the industry and places even more weight on the significance of the Chinese economy.
By Christopher T. Whitty
Marketing Manager - Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
Monday, 15 December 14
Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.74%) closed at US$ 51.45 on 12 December month over ...
Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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