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Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a new era in the iron ore sector and major analysts are already cutting down substantially their forecasts for the price of the commodity during 2015. The commodity traded at $75.38 on November the 6th, marking the lowest level since September 2009 and top researchers are talking about 2015 prices averaging around 80$ per ton.
According to Rio de Janeiro-based Vale SA, the largest producer, “The oversupply won’t last forever as some smaller producers that started output when prices were much higher won’t be able to survive the slump”. Even now that the commodity’s price is at record low levels, the majors are still looking at the big picture and they both continue to ramp up production in both Brazil and Australia.
From a maritime perspective, the oversupply of global iron ore is one of the main factors that could drive the demand for seaborne trade. The iron ore market fundamentals are changing to the extent where we all hope that the global surplus of the commodity will continue to fuel the rates for Capesize vessels over a prolonged period. The question is, how long it will take until the smaller producers will have to cease operations due to the lower industry price floor.
During last week, the iron majors in both Brazil and Australia were considered as relatively quiet and, as a result, freight rates declined week on week on the Tubarao to Qingdao route to $9.35 per tonne and on the Western Australia to China route to $24 per tonne.
Nevertheless the freight market for capesize bulk carriers is still at sustainable levels and the top iron ore producers are intending to bring even more new supply to the market over the next three years.
The increase in global supply is also affecting the Chinese domestic output and if the majors want to force a high percentage of these producers to shut down, they will have to ensure that prices will remain low for an extended period or at least for the next couple of months.
Even though Chinese iron ore imports decreased more than 6 percent compared to September, the overall sentiment is that they still remain on track for their biggest growth in the last five years, which is somewhat encouraging for now.
This means that at least in the short term the surplus of iron ore in the market will most likely be absorbed mainly by China, while expectations for 2015 are that the global surplus will be approximately 110 million tons. Comparing that to the 2014 surplus of around 60 million tons, yields a clear picture of the oversupply that is flooding the industry and places even more weight on the significance of the Chinese economy.
By Christopher T. Whitty
Marketing Manager - Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 3.4% W/E DECEMBER 6
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Wednesday, 10 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS, INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: As 2014 is coming to an end, we look back to what has happened during the year and notice that SnP activity has been particularly sof ...
Wednesday, 10 December 14
WORLD HARD COAL MARKET 2014: PRODUCTION AND TRADE STAGNATING, IMPORTS TO GERMANY AND EUROPE ON THE DECLINE
Press Release: German Coal Importers Association (VDKi) criticizes regulations ordering reduction of CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants as ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
PRESSURE ON CHINA COAL MINERS TO CONTINUE DESPITE GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Chinese coal mining companies will continue to be pressured by low prices, which will persist despite recent ...
Tuesday, 09 December 14
Q4' 2015, FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 49.02 W/E 5 DEC
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.2 ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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