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Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
 ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this development coming as verification to the ship-owners that have been dismissive of the benefits of the new designs? Moreover, are we experiencing the two tier market that was discussed a few years ago?
On the sale & purchase front, the answer is clearly a yes... and a no... Although there is nothing new about the preference towards Japanese vessels from both charterers and buyers as they were always a different tier from Chinese, there is a substantial price gap of about twenty percent between the modern Chinese vessels and the ones built based on new designs with electronic engines, optimized hulls, energy efficiency devices etc.
Further- more, good quality new Chinese ships maintain their values not far from their Japanese piers. We recently compared the consumption of two kamsarmax vessels, one was built in Japan in 2007 and one in China in 2013 equipped with electronic engine and fuel efficient propeller (no optimized hull form). The fuel efficiency of the two vessels was very similar. So the new ECO vessels and all the new technologies used on them are already taking their market share, the charterers' preference and one can safely say that are here to stay. With the oil price plummeting however, it's also easy to make the opposite argument. I distinctly remember a discussion I had with a well-known Taiwanese ship-owner during a forum; I was (I still am) defending the new ECO designs and was repeating to him “The oil price will only go up!” to which he replied with his experience from the crises of the previous decades saying “I fully agree with you (and all the energy reports on the planet for that matter) . . . but what if it doesn’t?”
Cheaper bunkers clearly favor the owners that bought discounted Chinese ships that few people would consider, mainly because of their higher fuel consumption. The desired rate of return on an investment can come either from the higher earnings of a highly efficient ECO vessel, but also from the lower initial investment on a less fuel efficient vessel. Fact is that the fuel efficiency benefit disappears as bunker prices drop. It also seems that this trend will probably continue at least in the short term as according to data from the International Energy Agency, the forecast of global oil demand for 2014 has been revised at lower levels since last month on reduced expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth is now projected to drop in Q1 & Q2 2015 and rise again in Q3 of 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
On the other hand, while new sources of oil supply have driven the oil price to its current lows, not seen for almost half a decade, demand for oil has actually been on the rise and as more oil is being produced and consumed now than in 2011 it will be interesting to see how the oil price - and the bunker prices - will develop in the future. The truth is that irrespective of bunker prices, a more efficient vessel will always be more competitive and there is no doubt that there are other considerations when evaluating a new shipping investment, such as EEDI and emissions' control imposed by the regulatory bodies that only new ships can address. And although complying with these regulations may not have a positive effect in the pockets of ship-owners like the reduced fuel consumption does, for a forward looking owner the new designs and the new technologies should be the main part of their strategy. Emission control is also here to stay and the industry must adapt to the new requirements.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
With the exception of Panamaxes, the rest of the Dry Bulk market was still struggling for the bigger part of last week, while towards Friday things improved as Capesize rates finally started moving up. The BDI closed today (21/10/2014) at 1,090 points, up by 117 points compared to Monday’s levels (20/10/2014) and an increase of 142 points compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (14/10/2014).
In the crude carriers market rates benefitted further from softening bunker prices, while sentiment is very positive for the upcoming winter season. The BDTI Monday (20/10/2014) was at 702 points, an increase of 19 points and the BCTI at 600, an increase of 26 points compared to previous Mon- day’s (13/10/2014)levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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