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Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
 ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this development coming as verification to the ship-owners that have been dismissive of the benefits of the new designs? Moreover, are we experiencing the two tier market that was discussed a few years ago?
On the sale & purchase front, the answer is clearly a yes... and a no... Although there is nothing new about the preference towards Japanese vessels from both charterers and buyers as they were always a different tier from Chinese, there is a substantial price gap of about twenty percent between the modern Chinese vessels and the ones built based on new designs with electronic engines, optimized hulls, energy efficiency devices etc.
Further- more, good quality new Chinese ships maintain their values not far from their Japanese piers. We recently compared the consumption of two kamsarmax vessels, one was built in Japan in 2007 and one in China in 2013 equipped with electronic engine and fuel efficient propeller (no optimized hull form). The fuel efficiency of the two vessels was very similar. So the new ECO vessels and all the new technologies used on them are already taking their market share, the charterers' preference and one can safely say that are here to stay. With the oil price plummeting however, it's also easy to make the opposite argument. I distinctly remember a discussion I had with a well-known Taiwanese ship-owner during a forum; I was (I still am) defending the new ECO designs and was repeating to him “The oil price will only go up!” to which he replied with his experience from the crises of the previous decades saying “I fully agree with you (and all the energy reports on the planet for that matter) . . . but what if it doesn’t?”
Cheaper bunkers clearly favor the owners that bought discounted Chinese ships that few people would consider, mainly because of their higher fuel consumption. The desired rate of return on an investment can come either from the higher earnings of a highly efficient ECO vessel, but also from the lower initial investment on a less fuel efficient vessel. Fact is that the fuel efficiency benefit disappears as bunker prices drop. It also seems that this trend will probably continue at least in the short term as according to data from the International Energy Agency, the forecast of global oil demand for 2014 has been revised at lower levels since last month on reduced expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth is now projected to drop in Q1 & Q2 2015 and rise again in Q3 of 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
On the other hand, while new sources of oil supply have driven the oil price to its current lows, not seen for almost half a decade, demand for oil has actually been on the rise and as more oil is being produced and consumed now than in 2011 it will be interesting to see how the oil price - and the bunker prices - will develop in the future. The truth is that irrespective of bunker prices, a more efficient vessel will always be more competitive and there is no doubt that there are other considerations when evaluating a new shipping investment, such as EEDI and emissions' control imposed by the regulatory bodies that only new ships can address. And although complying with these regulations may not have a positive effect in the pockets of ship-owners like the reduced fuel consumption does, for a forward looking owner the new designs and the new technologies should be the main part of their strategy. Emission control is also here to stay and the industry must adapt to the new requirements.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
With the exception of Panamaxes, the rest of the Dry Bulk market was still struggling for the bigger part of last week, while towards Friday things improved as Capesize rates finally started moving up. The BDI closed today (21/10/2014) at 1,090 points, up by 117 points compared to Monday’s levels (20/10/2014) and an increase of 142 points compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (14/10/2014).
In the crude carriers market rates benefitted further from softening bunker prices, while sentiment is very positive for the upcoming winter season. The BDTI Monday (20/10/2014) was at 702 points, an increase of 19 points and the BCTI at 600, an increase of 26 points compared to previous Mon- day’s (13/10/2014)levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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