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Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
 ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this development coming as verification to the ship-owners that have been dismissive of the benefits of the new designs? Moreover, are we experiencing the two tier market that was discussed a few years ago?
On the sale & purchase front, the answer is clearly a yes... and a no... Although there is nothing new about the preference towards Japanese vessels from both charterers and buyers as they were always a different tier from Chinese, there is a substantial price gap of about twenty percent between the modern Chinese vessels and the ones built based on new designs with electronic engines, optimized hulls, energy efficiency devices etc.
Further- more, good quality new Chinese ships maintain their values not far from their Japanese piers. We recently compared the consumption of two kamsarmax vessels, one was built in Japan in 2007 and one in China in 2013 equipped with electronic engine and fuel efficient propeller (no optimized hull form). The fuel efficiency of the two vessels was very similar. So the new ECO vessels and all the new technologies used on them are already taking their market share, the charterers' preference and one can safely say that are here to stay. With the oil price plummeting however, it's also easy to make the opposite argument. I distinctly remember a discussion I had with a well-known Taiwanese ship-owner during a forum; I was (I still am) defending the new ECO designs and was repeating to him “The oil price will only go up!” to which he replied with his experience from the crises of the previous decades saying “I fully agree with you (and all the energy reports on the planet for that matter) . . . but what if it doesn’t?”
Cheaper bunkers clearly favor the owners that bought discounted Chinese ships that few people would consider, mainly because of their higher fuel consumption. The desired rate of return on an investment can come either from the higher earnings of a highly efficient ECO vessel, but also from the lower initial investment on a less fuel efficient vessel. Fact is that the fuel efficiency benefit disappears as bunker prices drop. It also seems that this trend will probably continue at least in the short term as according to data from the International Energy Agency, the forecast of global oil demand for 2014 has been revised at lower levels since last month on reduced expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth is now projected to drop in Q1 & Q2 2015 and rise again in Q3 of 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.
On the other hand, while new sources of oil supply have driven the oil price to its current lows, not seen for almost half a decade, demand for oil has actually been on the rise and as more oil is being produced and consumed now than in 2011 it will be interesting to see how the oil price - and the bunker prices - will develop in the future. The truth is that irrespective of bunker prices, a more efficient vessel will always be more competitive and there is no doubt that there are other considerations when evaluating a new shipping investment, such as EEDI and emissions' control imposed by the regulatory bodies that only new ships can address. And although complying with these regulations may not have a positive effect in the pockets of ship-owners like the reduced fuel consumption does, for a forward looking owner the new designs and the new technologies should be the main part of their strategy. Emission control is also here to stay and the industry must adapt to the new requirements.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
With the exception of Panamaxes, the rest of the Dry Bulk market was still struggling for the bigger part of last week, while towards Friday things improved as Capesize rates finally started moving up. The BDI closed today (21/10/2014) at 1,090 points, up by 117 points compared to Monday’s levels (20/10/2014) and an increase of 142 points compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (14/10/2014).
In the crude carriers market rates benefitted further from softening bunker prices, while sentiment is very positive for the upcoming winter season. The BDTI Monday (20/10/2014) was at 702 points, an increase of 19 points and the BCTI at 600, an increase of 26 points compared to previous Mon- day’s (13/10/2014)levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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