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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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