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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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