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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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