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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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