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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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