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Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and maybe come out of its lethargy. Instead, the BDI moved below the 1,000 unit mark, a level which has been the psychological market barrier for the past couple of years, and started drawing up a completely different picture for dry bulkers compared to the one we see on the wet side and more specifically the crude sector, said Panos Makrinos, SnP Broker of Intermodal.
The broker further said, dry bulk asset prices keep dropping, expectations look dimmer by the day and new building prices are probably the only indicator in the sector still displaying some sort of resistance refusing to adjust accordingly to this new reality. In addition to the current order book, Vale seems to have finally cracked the "code" for entering its gigantic ships to the Chinese shores and the fate of coal exports to China are currently a big question mark following the new standards set by the government there. Optimism for a stronger Q4 has given its way to panic about next year's outlook and in many cases it feels like we are once again being overrun by sentiment. What's there to look forward to?
According to Intermodal, sale and purchase activity has been at healthy levels and -despite the large number of candidates- the market has remained highly liquid with a wide range of buyers for all sizes and age groups. Demo prices are very strong and activity is finally picking up to reflect the rising need for tonnage exiting the market. Prices for prompt re-sales are in par with new building prices after a long time and vessels being delivered now have little or zero differences from the designs that yards are marketing for construction. These facts along with the rising finance gap that has been widening throughout the year as private equity started to distance itself from shipping should provide enough disincentives for new orders going forward. Isn’t this the perfect storm that counter-cyclical investors are looking for?
Commenting on tankers, Intermodal said, on the other side of the fence, tankers are displaying a much rosier picture. The M/T Ariadni (166,000dwt - blt 2009) is being reported sold for a very solid USD 56.5m and analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook of the crude market, commenting on the low order book and rising demand for higher ton-mile cargo movements. Sale and purchase activity is steadily rising and asset values across all sizes are beating last done values every time. The New building market is also experiencing this euphoria with prices picking up at least 5% within weeks, completing an image very different to the one during the first quarter of the year.
What has changed? Are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot once again? Hopefully market pundits will understand that this long-awaited improvement has been achieved due to the entire sector patiently and painfully working towards a healthier equilibrium and we will avoid making the “recent” mistakes of other sectors...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 22 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although following Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
INDIA'S DIESEL DEREGULATION POSITIVE FOR OIL COMPANIES - FITCH
The Indian government's 18 October decision to deregulate diesel prices will have a positive effect on the national oil marketing companies tha ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUTTING COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost on day, week and month.
The swap has lost US$ 1.57 (-3.04%) month on month ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FAILED TO PERFORM POSITIVE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 3.04 (-4.57%) month over month and US$ 1.75 (-2.68%) week o ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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