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Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and maybe come out of its lethargy. Instead, the BDI moved below the 1,000 unit mark, a level which has been the psychological market barrier for the past couple of years, and started drawing up a completely different picture for dry bulkers compared to the one we see on the wet side and more specifically the crude sector, said Panos Makrinos, SnP Broker of Intermodal.
The broker further said, dry bulk asset prices keep dropping, expectations look dimmer by the day and new building prices are probably the only indicator in the sector still displaying some sort of resistance refusing to adjust accordingly to this new reality. In addition to the current order book, Vale seems to have finally cracked the "code" for entering its gigantic ships to the Chinese shores and the fate of coal exports to China are currently a big question mark following the new standards set by the government there. Optimism for a stronger Q4 has given its way to panic about next year's outlook and in many cases it feels like we are once again being overrun by sentiment. What's there to look forward to?
According to Intermodal, sale and purchase activity has been at healthy levels and -despite the large number of candidates- the market has remained highly liquid with a wide range of buyers for all sizes and age groups. Demo prices are very strong and activity is finally picking up to reflect the rising need for tonnage exiting the market. Prices for prompt re-sales are in par with new building prices after a long time and vessels being delivered now have little or zero differences from the designs that yards are marketing for construction. These facts along with the rising finance gap that has been widening throughout the year as private equity started to distance itself from shipping should provide enough disincentives for new orders going forward. Isn’t this the perfect storm that counter-cyclical investors are looking for?
Commenting on tankers, Intermodal said, on the other side of the fence, tankers are displaying a much rosier picture. The M/T Ariadni (166,000dwt - blt 2009) is being reported sold for a very solid USD 56.5m and analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook of the crude market, commenting on the low order book and rising demand for higher ton-mile cargo movements. Sale and purchase activity is steadily rising and asset values across all sizes are beating last done values every time. The New building market is also experiencing this euphoria with prices picking up at least 5% within weeks, completing an image very different to the one during the first quarter of the year.
What has changed? Are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot once again? Hopefully market pundits will understand that this long-awaited improvement has been achieved due to the entire sector patiently and painfully working towards a healthier equilibrium and we will avoid making the “recent” mistakes of other sectors...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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