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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 15 October 14
SHIPOWNER NOT LIABLE FOR CARGO DAMAGE RESULTING FROM POOR STOWAGE - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Russian metal trading company Yuzhny Zavod Metall Profil (YZMP), the holder of a CONGEN 1994 bill of lading, took delivery o ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.96 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER; UP 5.72%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,227.7 wor ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
KING COAL UNDER ATTACK? - EVA TZIMA
With the last quarter of the year being well underway and with no strong signs that the Dry Bulk market could be ready for a big positive reversal, ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
THE NEW CHINESE TRANSPORTATION TAX LAW: WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR GREEK SHIPPING? - DELOITTE
China has recently promulgated a new law which imposes tax on profits from freights of inbound routes. The objective of the new tax law titled &ldq ...
Monday, 13 October 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORT TARIFFS YET ANOTHER BLOW TO AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS - TIM BUCKLEY
COALspot.com: China’s unexpected move to reintroduce thermal coal import tariffs of 6% will have a materially negative impact on the viabilit ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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