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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 15 October 14
SHIPOWNER NOT LIABLE FOR CARGO DAMAGE RESULTING FROM POOR STOWAGE - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Russian metal trading company Yuzhny Zavod Metall Profil (YZMP), the holder of a CONGEN 1994 bill of lading, took delivery o ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.96 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER; UP 5.72%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,227.7 wor ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
KING COAL UNDER ATTACK? - EVA TZIMA
With the last quarter of the year being well underway and with no strong signs that the Dry Bulk market could be ready for a big positive reversal, ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
THE NEW CHINESE TRANSPORTATION TAX LAW: WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR GREEK SHIPPING? - DELOITTE
China has recently promulgated a new law which imposes tax on profits from freights of inbound routes. The objective of the new tax law titled &ldq ...
Monday, 13 October 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORT TARIFFS YET ANOTHER BLOW TO AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS - TIM BUCKLEY
COALspot.com: China’s unexpected move to reintroduce thermal coal import tariffs of 6% will have a materially negative impact on the viabilit ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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