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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 15 October 14
SHIPOWNER NOT LIABLE FOR CARGO DAMAGE RESULTING FROM POOR STOWAGE - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Russian metal trading company Yuzhny Zavod Metall Profil (YZMP), the holder of a CONGEN 1994 bill of lading, took delivery o ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.96 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER; UP 5.72%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,227.7 wor ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
KING COAL UNDER ATTACK? - EVA TZIMA
With the last quarter of the year being well underway and with no strong signs that the Dry Bulk market could be ready for a big positive reversal, ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
THE NEW CHINESE TRANSPORTATION TAX LAW: WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR GREEK SHIPPING? - DELOITTE
China has recently promulgated a new law which imposes tax on profits from freights of inbound routes. The objective of the new tax law titled &ldq ...
Monday, 13 October 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORT TARIFFS YET ANOTHER BLOW TO AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS - TIM BUCKLEY
COALspot.com: China’s unexpected move to reintroduce thermal coal import tariffs of 6% will have a materially negative impact on the viabilit ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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