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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 03 December 14
PROGRESSING SMELTER PROJECTS IN INDONESIA
Press Release: Indonesia’s ban on ‘raw mineral export’ that was designed to encouraging downstream investment in mineral processi ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The dry bulk market seems unable to turn sentiment round and is still looking for direction. The BCI's 887-point free fall last week had an obv ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KEY PLAYERS SHED NEW PERSPECTIVES ON COAL MARKETS
Press Release: Singapore’s ONLY and longest established Coal Trade event. Whilst Coal prices remain challenging, there is widespread consensu ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 585,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1'15
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 585,000 Metric Tons of coal. According to invitation, 5700 ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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