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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 06 December 14
MUNDRA PORT MAKES HISTORY BY HANDLING THE LARGEST BULK CARRIER TO CALL ON WEST COAST OF INDIA
COALspot.com: Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd, India’s largest port developer and part of Adani Group, yesterday said its Mundra Port successf ...
Friday, 05 December 14
CHINESE SPECIAL STEEL MAKERS' RISK PROFILES MORE RESILIENT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the risk profiles of Chinese makers of special steel, especially high-end products, are more like those of manufacturers and mor ...
Friday, 05 December 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED AROUND 905 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 04 December 14
CAPE MARKET IS DEVELOPING FROM BAD TO WORSE
Handy
The Atlantic market has been pretty stable and balanced this week, Fearnleys AS says in its latest weekly report.
The broker furt ...
Thursday, 04 December 14
DRY BULK MARKET; ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK
COALspot.com: For those who have been hoping to see alignment of freight direction across the Dry Bulk market, this must have been another disappoi ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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